Optimal Stopping Secretary Problem
Secretary Problem For Dating
Let’s say you are one of those who want to connect for a while. For sure you will not choose the first one. So how long will you wait?
37%. this is the correct answer.
- This problem is quite classic in probability theory. The optimal strategy is: consider the maximum number of relationships you can involve. Let’s say 100. Do not connect to anyone until the first 37, this is the period of discovery. After 37, skip to the first option, which is better than the options you’ve seen so far.
- Of course, the best option you could find would be the 20th, then you’ve already missed it or option 40 will be chosen because it is better than the first 37 but the 62nd was better than all of them, uppssss ! you missed it too.
- But still this is the best strategy. Regardless of how big the group is (10, 100 or 100 million, it doesn’t matter) you are 37% likely to choose the most suitable person in the group, and unfortunately there is no better possible solution. (Yes both free discovery threshold 37 and chance to find the optimum 37) .
- Of course I write this half-jockingly, because choosing a mate is a more complicated scenario. For example, you can go back to some of the possibilities you passed, which is an advantage and increases the 37% limit.
- On the other hand, every pass has an opportunity cost. That is, a partnership with a 90% compatible partner that you will start today is more valuable than a potantial partner you will meet after 5 years and that will be 95% compatible (based on the “depth” conversation). This is an effect that lowers the 37% limit. In other words, you shouldn’t be too worried to find the most suitable partner.
- You can do this not depending on the number of relationships, but also on the duration of the relationship. Maybe this would be more suitable for women, considering the age limit of pregnancy. Let’s say you want to make your final decision by 35, because you will be giving birth at 37 at the latest. You have 15 years when you start sensible relationships at the age of 20. So hang out and discover for the first 5 years. Search mode after 25. Stop searching as soon as you find the better option than previous ones.
- Of course, this is also a complicated situation. The men you will hang out at the age of 20 are the types that have not yet been able to do their job. Since the average woman places more emphasis on stability and status in men, the majority of candidates suitable for women will emerge later. so it would make sense to extend the discovery time to 2-3 years.
- In any case, we should not take our life and choices very seriously. We are not in control of most things that we think we are in control of.
more information : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem